Force Protection, Inc.
FRPT (NASDAQ)
Forecast has expired
Ended: Tuesday July 22, 2008
Target
$25.13 To $32.87
$9.67 (50.0%)
Time Span:6mths and above
Final
$5.04
-$14.29 (73.9%)
Recommendation
Rating:Strong Buy
Risk:Moderate
Stop Loss Price:$19.20
Final XP:
20329
Target not reached
Analysis
Force Protection has seen its stock skyrocket from $5 to as high as $30 in the past 12 months due to the increased importance of the Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicle program (MRAP). The high casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan due to more and more sophisticated Improvised Explosive Device have made the MRAP the foremost priority of the Department of Defense today and delivering those life saving vehicles quick enough has been a major issue.
Lately the stock has seen downward pressure from a perception that FRPT is losing ground to its competitors, such as BAE system, or Navistar. What investors seem to overlook is that:
- Force Protection is currently on track to complete their delivery schedule on-time or ahead of schedule while competitors have fallen behind theirs.
- Force Protection is ramping up production and will be able to produce up to 1000 vehicles a month by Spring of 2008
- Force Protection is well positioned to capture a major share of the contracts on the upcoming replacement of the military's flat-bottomed Humvees. FRPT's Cheetah should be ready for production in 4Q2007 well ahead of the competition
- Last but not least, Force Protection has an immaculate record on the battlefield with more than 3 millions hours logged in theater and no casualties reported.